World Coffee ProductionForecast for 2017/18

The U.S. Department of Agriculture is forecasting world coffee production for 2017/18 to be at 159.9 million bags (a bag is 60 kg), with global consumption forecast at a record 158.5 million bags. World exports are expected to slip primarily due to lower shipments from Brazil. as lower output in Brazil offsets record production in Vietnam. A bag is 60 kilograms.

Brazil’s Arabica output is forecast to drop 6.8 million bags to 38.8 million. Vietnam’s production is forecast to rebound by 3.2 million bags to a record 29.9 million as ideal weather led to good flowering and fruit-set. Central America and Mexico are forecast to add 600,000 bags of production to reach 19.4 million. Production has recovered in Costa Rica, Honduras, and Nicaragua during this period but remains depressed in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Mexico due to the effects of coffee rust. Colombia’s production is forecast nearly flat at 14.7 million bags although output remains strong on favorable growing conditions.

European Union imports are forecast down 200,000 bags to 46.0 million and account for over 40 percent of the world’s coffee bean imports. Top suppliers include Brazil (33 percent), Vietnam (25 percent), Honduras (7 percent), and Colombia (7 percent). United States imports the second-largest amount of coffee beans and is forecast down 800,000 bags to 25.0 million. Top suppliers include Brazil (27 percent), Colombia (20 percent), and Vietnam (16 percent). Ending stocks are forecast to drop 600,000 bags to 6.6 million bags.